Radioactivity Dynamics in River System
(2025)
QWhat environmental factors influence the seasonal and long-term changes in radiocesium (137Cs) concentrations in rivers?
AThe concentration of 137Cs dissolved in water (dissolved form) is affected by water temperature, showing a seasonal pattern in which it is higher in summer and lower in winter. In contrast, the concentration of 137Cs attached to suspended particles in the water (particulate form) does not show a marked seasonal variation. In addition, after record-breaking rainfall events, 137Cs concentrations can decrease sharply. In particular, after Typhoon Hagibis in 2019, which caused severe flooding in the affected region, pronounced decreases in both dissolved and particulate 137Csconcentrations were observed in several rivers.
Following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, much of the 137Cs deposited in surrounding areas still remains in forests and other land where decontamination has not been carried out. As a result, 137Cs continues to be transported from forested areas to the ocean via rivers, and influenced by this, the 137Cs concentration in some freshwater fish inhabiting rivers still exceeds the regulatory limit. A complete lifting of shipping restrictions has therefore not yet been achieved. To realize recovery of the water environment from the nuclear accident, it is important to clarify the current status of 137Cs concentrations in river water, and how these concentrations are determined under the influence of various environmental factors.
The National Institute for Environmental Studies conducted monthly sampling and water-quality measurements from 2013 to 2021 at four rivers around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (two rivers draining mainly agricultural land and two rivers whose catchments are mostly forest), as well as at a site downstream from a reservoir. Using these data, the Institute analyzed how environmental conditions determine the concentrations of dissolved and particulate 137Cs. The analysis showed that water temperature, the concentration of suspended solids (SS), and large-scale watershed disturbances caused by intense rainfall events all play roles in seasonal and long-term changes in 137Cs.
Fig. 1. River monitoring sites.
Agricultural catchments: (1) Uda River, (2) Mano River Forested catchments: (3) Ota River, (4) Odaka River
Downstream of reservoir: (5) tributary of Ota River (treated separately from forested rivers because SS here is strongly affected by outflow of suspended material from the reservoir)
Seasonal variation in dissolved 137Cs concentrations: linkage with water temperature
Analysis of 137Cs concentration changes in five rivers showed that dissolved 137Cs concentrations decreased year by year at all sites, while at the same time exhibiting seasonal variation: concentrations were higher in summer and lower in winter (Fig. 2). One reason for this seasonal pattern is that the balance of concentrations between dissolved 137Cs and particulate 137Cs (chemical equilibrium) shifts, as water temperature increases, in the direction of higher dissolved 137Cs concentrations.
Fig. 2. Long-term changes in dissolved 137Cs concentrations in river water
A commonly used indicator of this concentration balance is the distribution coefficient, Kd. The larger the Kd value, the more readily 137Cs exists in particulate form rather than in dissolved form.
Distribution coefficient (Kd)
The larger the distribution coefficient,
the more easily radiocesium exists in a form adsorbed onto soil particles.
Relationship between water temperature and the 137Cs distribution coefficient
If we can assume that 137Cs is in chemical equilibrium in water, the relationship between the distribution coefficient Kd and temperature is known to follow the van ’t Hoff equation from thermodynamics. The research team at the National Institute for Environmental Studies therefore examined whether the observed data could be reproduced using a van ’t Hoff plot of the reciprocal of water temperature (absolute temperature) versus Kd, and calculated the enthalpy of reaction — that is, the strength of adsorption of 137Cs onto particles as temperature changes — from the regression equation obtained.
The results showed that, at the two agricultural rivers (Uda River and Mano River) and at the reservoir outlet site, the observed data were well reproduced by the theoretical van ’t Hoff equation, and the enthalpy of reaction fell in the range −15.6 to −19.6 kJ/mol, almost the same as values reported in previous studies.
Fig. 3. Relationship between reciprocal water temperature and the logarithm of the 137Cs distribution coefficient (van ’t Hoff plot)
By contrast, in the forested rivers the observed data were not reproduced well by the theoretical equation (the coefficient of determination R² was much lower than in the agricultural rivers). This suggests that dissolved 137Cs concentrations in forested rivers are not determined solely by the 137Cs concentration balance (ion exchange) between dissolved and particulate forms, but are also influenced by 137Cs contained in leaf litter (forest floor litter) and by potassium ions (K⁺), which behave chemically in a similar way to 137Cs in water.
Variation in particulate 137Cs concentrations: effects of storm runoff and decontamination work
Although particulate 137Cs concentrations in river water did not show a periodic variation like that of dissolved 137Cs, long-term analysis of the data revealed fluctuations caused by rainfall events and by decontamination work. The most marked tendencies were found in the agricultural rivers: as the concentration of suspended solids (SS) increased, the 137Cs concentration in SS decreased. One possible explanation is that stronger rainfall increases the proportion of soil from agricultural land that has relatively low 137Cs concentrations (because decontamination has been carried out) in the SS.
In the Mano River, a pronounced decrease in 137Cs concentration in SS was observed from 2015 to 2016, when decontamination was carried out in the catchment. This suggests that removal of 137Cs from agricultural land through decontamination contributed to lower 137Cs concentrations in river water.
Fig. 4. Long-term changes in 137Cs concentrations in suspended solids in river water
(vertical axis on a logarithmic scale)
Effects of record-breaking rainfall events
Because 137Cs concentrations in river water are determined by the supply of 137Cs from the catchment and by the amount of river water, they are naturally affected by rainfall events. In past studies by the same research group, it was found that during high-flow conditions, dissolved and particulate 137Cs concentrations in forested rivers tend to be higher than during baseflow, but that when the scale of rainfall exceeds the rate at which 137Cs is supplied from the catchment, the concentrations can instead become lower than during baseflow.
It was also shown that after typhoons of a scale that occur every year (total rainfall of about 100–200 mm), 137Cs concentrations in river water during baseflow return to pre-typhoon levels. In contrast, after record-breaking heavy rainfall that causes severe disturbance of the catchment, there are cases where the concentration level does not return to its previous state.
Typhoon Hagibis, which passed over the monitored catchments from 12 to 13 October 2019, brought the largest rainfall (about 500 mm) during the observation period (2014–2021) and triggered many landslides in forested mountain areas. Immediately after the typhoon, dissolved and particulate 137Cs concentrations in river water fell sharply at several sites and remained low for two to three years (Fig. 5). This suggests that the forest litter layer and surface soil, which had high 137Cs concentrations, were washed away in a single event, and that the subsurface soil layer beneath them — with lower 137Cs concentrations — became a new source of dissolved 137Cs and SS in the rivers.
Fig. 5. Long-term trend in dissolved 137Cs concentrations
(values corrected to remove the influence of water temperature) in the Ota River
After the sudden decrease in concentration immediately following Typhoon Hagibis in 2019, the long-term trend (blue line) changed.
(Source: National Institute for Environmental Studies, FRECC+ Research Highlights, 2025.04.30)
Through this study, the environmental factors that influence radiocesium concentrations in river water have been clarified:
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Dissolved 137Cs concentrations vary seasonally in step with water temperature.
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Particulate 137Cs concentrations are affected by changes in suspended solids concentrations and by decontamination work.
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Record-breaking rainfall events can sometimes lead to long-term decreases in both dissolved and particulate 137Cs concentrations.
These findings provide a basis for building mathematical models to predict future behavior of radioactive substances and for designing efficient water-quality monitoring programs.
(Research outcome by the National Institute for Environmental Studies)
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